On the 2024 Brier

24 thoughts on the third straight Gushue win...

It’s getting to be a bit of a broken record, but here we are again, talking about Team Gushue’s dominance in a Brier playoffs. Let’s get right into it.

But first! As always, you can subscribe to this newsletter by clicking the button below. Free subscriptions get this newsletter delivered RIGHT to your inbox the second I finish writing them. A paid subscription helps me keep doing this here curling journalism, but also gets you a video version of this newsletter, first right on mailbag questions, and more. Either option works for me, and thank you for your support.

(photo credit: Team Canada/Curling Canada)

1. It’s actually pretty wild to sit here and think that there was a time when we wondered if Brad Gushue would EVER win a Brier. Valiantly constructing lineups with legends like Randy Ferbey and Ryan Fry and people we’d never hear from again like Jamie Danbrook and Mike Adam and always falling short—and often way short. Perhaps one of the more surprising statistics is that for all of his recent dominance and his 6 titles, Brad only has two silvers and one bronze despite 21 appearances at the Brier and being ranked among Canada’s top teams at nearly every turn. But once the dam broke in 2017, he seems unstoppable, now winning six in eight years, showing up for the right games at the right times, and once again, carrying an air of ruthlessness about the way he dispatched his opposition.

2. Back in its “Any Given Sunday” heyday, The Brier was often more about which team could get hot at the right time, and less about overall consistency. As the top teams have gotten better, we’ve seen that margin for error shrink, but this week, we were led to believe again. I’ll get to Mike McEwen in a second, but he was ranked seventh among Canadian teams entering this Brier and overachieved with some incredibly dominant skip play from Mike himself, and a feeling that with the home crowd behind him, this was truly his week. But much as he did last year with a similarly-hot Matt Dunstone, Brad cooled them right off. A hot week doesn’t mean what it used to, and it means even less with Brad waiting in the finals.

3. I’ll type “stats don’t mean everything” 100 more times in this newsletter over the years, but Brad’s percentage in the last 3 Brier finals: 93%, 91%, 97%. That’s how you play spoiler. It helps having an amazing team in front of you, but you still gotta make the shots, and Brad makes more of ‘em than most.

4. It was also fascinating coming into the Brier because this was easily Brad’s worst season in recent memory. He not only lost his #1 world ranking but slipped all the way to sixth, didn’t win a major tournament (unless you count the PanCon or the Karuizawa International—I do not), and he not only didn’t win a Slam, but actually missed the playoffs at The National, breaking his very long Slam playoff streak. It was fair coming into this Brier to ask if the injuries or age had caught up…this was an emphatic slam of the door on those questions.

5. One question I was asking myself this week: now that we know Team Canada and the wild card teams are not subject to residency rules, would things have been different if Team Gushue had known that a year earlier? Would Brett Gallant have left? The configuration right now for Team Gushue remains the same as it would have if Brett stayed but moved to Alberta, with two out-of-province players. I’d be curious to know if Brett wanted out regardless (or Brad was forcing him out), or they’d still be together. Either way, EJ Harnden has been a seamless fit and rolled his way to another All-Star Team award this week.

6. Last word on Brad: he made a comment at the start of the week that I thought was very interesting, in that he mentioned they played a few events in curling clubs this season (The Shorty Jenkins and the Astec Safety) and found it hard to be motivated without a big crowd or big stakes. I think that’s interesting for two reasons: one, it might be a harbinger of things to come for these elite teams, and I wonder if this is the first sounding of a death knell for teams competing much outside of the arena settings. There’s always going to be teams that want to play lots and will play in clubs, but Gushue and Team Einarson, who were both #1 last year, played a combined ZERO events in curling clubs in the 2022-23 season. Potentially a troubling sign. But two, did that contribute to Brad’s shakiness at the start of the week? He admitted himself after the Brier was over that they came into the week lacking confidence, and I wonder if it will be an adjustment for teams who go that route to all of a sudden ramp up for the Brier. Something that will be curious to watch, but maybe the start of a true Tier 2 in curling emerging.

7. Mike McEwen. Magic Mike. What a story. I think after last year’s fiasco—which, admittedly, was saved with a pretty great Brier appearance—it was safe to wonder how much Mike had left in the tank. And Mike, always one of the most thoughtful athletes in the game, was wondering that himself. So it was great to see one of the best skips of this generation get rewarded with a team that lets him cook, a “home” crowd in Saskatchewan that showed him love all week, and a First All-Star Team award at skip. When Mike is hot, there’s very, very few skips that can match him, and he was on a nuclear level this week, playing to a +7 and an 89% on the week.

8. The final had it all—an early 5-1 lead for Gushue almost always means a loss, and while it did in this case too, Team McEwen certainly made it interesting, as Brad began his shots in the 6th end by trying to only give up a steal of 2, which you almost never see from skips, and then very nearly gave up a steal of 3. It seemed like the momentum was all in Team McEwen’s favour and we were going to get a Brier story for the ages, but the two shots Brad made in 7—particularly his first, which was as good of a shot that gets almost no plaudits as you’ll ever see—were spectacular and as I said on Twitter, when Brad has any chance to put you away…he takes it.

9. A couple of things I’m watching for next season with Team McEwen: Kevin Marsh’s growth in the house. As far as I can tell, it’s been a very long time since Kevin had been in the house calling line, and while he did a great job, you can only imagine more confidence in that department is coming. I found he deferred to Mike a little too often, and usually the caller in the house is going to have a more effective view of the line, so I assume that’ll continue to change as he gets more experience there. Second, will Colton Flasch continue to assume the role of inside sweeper 100% of the time? You don’t see any other top teams utilize this strategy, and I do think at the Brier, it took its toll. Colton is one of the best and most powerful sweepers in the world, but being the inside guy on every stone is not easy and I wonder if there’s a switch coming there too.

10. Coming into The Brier, Team Bottcher were my chosen favourites. They had easily the best season on tour of any of the Brier teams, and I’ve just really liked the mix from day one. Akin to my Rachel Homan prediction from last year’s Scotties recap, I thought we might see a “Cullen on Curling” double where Brendan Bottcher might also fulfill the prophecy I laid out—that they would win a Brier this quad. It hasn’t come true yet, but I’m still sticking to that prediction. I think they’re too good not to.

11. While Marc, Brett, and Ben swept the first All-Star Team awards, Brendan not being an All-Star told the story of the week: he just never seemed to get his feet fully underneath him. He had four games in the 70s on the week, and for comparison, Mike McEwen and Brad Gushue only had one each. Hell, even Catlin Schneider—5th among skips—only had one all week. Brendan reminds me a lot of Brad Gushue, in that his ability to play consistently well is what makes him so successful. You’re relying less on him “getting hot” like you might with a Mike McEwen or a Kevin Koe or a Brad Jacobs and more just on playing your game and knowing most of the time, that’ll be good enough, because he has so few bad games. But what Brad Gushue eventually developed—and what’s led him to 6 Briers in the last 8 years—was that fifth gear. That ability to get one more twist of the knife when it’s plunged deep that other skips might not be able to access. Brendan is still young. He won his first Brier at age 29, whereas Brad didn’t win his until age 36. But he did lose a few Brier finals before that, and a lot of that was because a skip found a fifth gear against him in those games that he couldn’t match. Once that gear develops…look out. I think it’s coming.

12. You can tell Matt Dunstone grew up a Mike McEwen fan, and it’s not just because of the near-identical tuck slide and rock release. He’s also brutally honest about his team and where he’s at. When he came into the tournament saying things like it hadn’t been a good year for the team, and that he specifically had to work on his in-turn draw, I knew it was going to be an uphill climb for them. I don’t know how much making the Brier final last year affected them, but…making the Brier Final isn’t easy. It’s hard not to have that set your expectation, especially as a new team making it in your first season together, but it does seem to be fair to ask if that expectation crept into some of their results.

13. That said, Matt was third for skips, BJ was third for thirds, and Ryan was third for leads for the week…and they finished fourth. They’re right there, and it seems more likely their overall results for this season were an aberration. They’re probably closer to last season both on tour and at the Brier. That said, do we ask the question if the preparation being a fully qualified Wild Card team also affected them? Manitoba Provincials is a meat grinder and has to be one of the absolute best ways to sharpen yourself for a Brier. Seeing as they look likely to be a pre-qualified team again next season, barring a collapse at the Players and a McEwen/Koe final at the same tournament, we’ll see if that factors in at all to their off-season planning, and how best to ramp up for the big one.

14. It was a strange week for Team Carruthers, as they went 7-1 in the RR despite never looking especially dominant, and finishing 6th in the field in team percentage. I’m not sure if Brad has gotten all the way back as far as skipping and throwing last is concerned, as it wasn’t as sharp as we are used to seeing him. They had a strange year overall (which I detailed in my provincial wrap column), losing a game in the Manitoba Round of 32 (which champions almost never lose a game in) and barely scraping through the double KO playoff round as well, before needing a disastrous 10th end from Braden Calvert to secure the provincial title. All great players, all the pieces are there, we’ll just see where things head next year with Brad playing skip full-time and if that makes the unit a little stronger.

15. For all the talk of the “Bizarro Brier” (I mean, I also tweeted that out), it didn’t really come to fruition once the playoffs rolled around, except in the case of Jamie Koe. As many pointed out, we expected a Koe to be in the playoffs, but not this one! This was a classic case of a few things going right: Jamie got really hot, they caught a few breaks (Tyler Smith missing a winning shot, for example—I’ll get to that), and Glen Kennedy is a really good player. His brother Marc will tell anyone who will listen that Glen was a better player than him growing up, but injuries derailed Glen’s early career and then he focused on family. He made a ton of amazing shots throughout the week and his classic calm Kennedy demeanour serves Jamie well also. They were never long for the playoffs but as you could see from the post-game interviews after the final RR game, it meant an awful lot for them to be there.

16. Speaking of Tyler Smith, my goodness. We have to love a final RR game that is sudden death for both teams, and unfortunately, one of those teams has to lose. I think Tyler will be ruminating on his final shot in the 10th for a while. The draw was a totally fine call, but if the plan was always to draw, then I’m a little confused by his first call to hit and roll behind his own stone in the house. Just hit the NWT stone and roll out, and give yourself a less-complicated draw path. He had options with his last (a double or a thin in-off of his own—I preferred the in-off, as there were several ways to make it and you didn’t need to save the shooter), but choosing the draw was fine if he didn’t say to his sweepers in the hack that his plan wasn’t to use them. It sucks to go out of a hot week on a missed shot, but they played really well. He’s 25, and there isn’t a great deal holding him back from winning PEI a lot in the coming years. I was impressed-as-hell with him at the 2020 Canadian Juniors, and have told a few people since he’s got a chance to play spoiler at future Briers. Didn’t think it would be this soon.

17. I suppose we should talk about Team Koe. The other one. A really tough week for them, and one where you don’t find a ton of solace in any of the statistics, either. Sometimes a tough week is just a case of bad luck, bad timing, or circumstances out of your control. Karrick had a nice week, going +4, but it goes downhill from there, with Jacques a -1, Tyler a -7 (last among thirds) and Kevin shooting second-last among skips, only beating out Shane Latimer. He had 4 games in the 60s and a game at 58%. It just isn’t the type of Kevin Koe we are used to seeing, and I’d think that would’ve affected the whole team as the week went on. Despite all his major accolades and wins, Kevin Koe over his career hasn’t been a consistent skip—except at the Brier. “Brier Kevin” is stuff of legend, and I think if you had to pick one skip in men’s curling history to make a big shot at a big moment in their prime, you’re picking Brier Kevin. But outside the Brier he can be inconsistent. He only has 6 Slams, and only two of those wins are since 2015. In that same timeframe, Brad Gushue has won 9. He has no long qualifying streaks, and any look at his stats from year-to-year will show some dips. That said, they won a VERY strongly-fielded Astec Safety Challenge in January and seemed primed for this Brier, even with the losses to Team Sluchinski at the Alberta provincials. Sometimes, when it can all go wrong, it will. I think they’re a very strong team that was hard luck not to go further at last year’s Brier (where Tyler was an All-Star) and there’s a ton of pedigree there with Brier titles, World Junior titles, and more. Hopefully this lights a fire for next season.

18. Trevor Bonot. The backwards hat boys. First of all, Mike McCarville: congratulations on that salad. Incredible. Can’t believe you hid that under a hat all week. Second, please send me a hat. Third, one of my favourite quotes of the week was from Trevor Bonot when he was asked about being a first-time skip and he said something to the effect of “I’m not a first-time skip. I’m a first-time skip at the Brier, but I’ve skipped lots in my life so this is just another tournament where I am a skip.” It was a beautiful glimpse into the championship mindset he no doubt brought into the tournament. He must’ve glanced over at the Scotties standings tables where 5-3 would’ve gotten him in to the playoffs in either pool there and turned as green as his jacket. I hope they’re back. Amazing touring fans, really fun to watch play, and great personalities.

19. I think if you had told me at the start of the week that Catlin Schneider would’ve been fifth among skips, I would’ve inserted a metaphor here that is a stand-in for surprise. It’s not that Catlin isn’t a talented shotmaker, because he is, but he took the semi-long way at BC Provincials coming out of the B side and got frustrated at times so I wasn’t sure how he might hold up in the high-pressure environment of your first Brier as a skip in your hometown. But held up he did, with only one game below 80% all week. The team also made a position change midseason, sending Sterling Middleton to the 2-hole and moving him out of the house in favour of Alex Horvath. I wasn’t sure if that was indicative of something brewing under the hood. Apparently not. Sterling has been a career third and a very good one, but I have long thought that his hitting ability would play best at second and boy, does he ever look comfortable there. He was the high-man among seconds at +5 for the week, and while I’m sure it wasn’t easy to initially accept playing second, that performance will open some eyes.

20. Was that Scott Howard’s lineup for next season? Ontario has low-key found itself in a bit of a nadir among competitive teams, with a VERY young Jayden King making the finals there, John Epping having a middling season, and some of their good players plying their trades elsewhere. Hard not to imagine if this is it for Glenn—and it sure seems like it might be—that we may see that very same lineup next year. Unless Scotty gets some offers. Which he might, as he really has become that good over the last 5 years. But who is breaking up?

21. I was a little surprised not to see Aaron Sluchinski have a bit better of a week. He was completely dominant in the Alberta provincials, beating Koe twice—handily—on the way to the title, and it looked like they were ready to finally emerge. In that Pool B if you were told before the week that Kevin Koe wasn’t making the playoffs, you’d probably imagine Aaron Sluchinski would. It was again inconsistency—they beat Kevin Koe and Jamie Koe, but nearly lost to Nunavut and got dominated by Matthew Manuel in other games. I loved how hard they went this season and there’s some good, young players there. We’ll see if Kevin Koe snags a final wild card to make Alberta provincials a little easier for them next year, or if they’ll need another victory over the Kudog to get back to The Show.

22. Mike McEwen only lost three games at this Brier…one to Brad Gushue, one to Brendan Bottcher and one to….Matthew Manuel. I was wildly impressed with Manuel last year, as he has a lineup that throws consistently and he’s demonstrated some very solid hero-shot ability, which is the perfect recipe to make some noise at these tournaments despite playing a bit of a lighter schedule. They started playing some events in Ontario this year, and I’d love to see how they continue to build. Weirdly enough, they have a strong team in the #2 spot in Nova Scotia right now in Owen Purcell, so Brier berths won’t be guaranteed, but they’ve got some jam.

23. Was it just me, or was this the liveliest a Brier has felt in a while? The crowd was fantastic. Knowledgeable, loud, and right behind Mike McEwen all week, as they should have been. Then you mix in the upsets and the feeling like games mattered all week long in a way maybe they haven’t in the past few years, and this Brier just had a feel to it, didn’t it? A lot of curlers went on the record this week saying this is the format finally nailed, and it’s tough to disagree. I still maintain we are (eventually) heading to the Brier restored to its more amateur days with the pro teams in their own thing competing for worlds, but in the meantime…I could get used to this.

24. Lastly, how about some props for Joanne Courtney? Last year she was only on the mic for the Scotties and it was so nice to hear her at the Brier this year as well. I have heard she will also be on the call for Women’s Worlds, which will be nice to see too. She brings a fresh, modern perspective to the game, and isn’t too busy in the booth. She lets the call come to her and has been a great addition to the always-solid TSN package. It livens the mix and with Jennifer Jones probably hunting for a broadcast job next season, I hope it doesn’t mean we lose Jo because she’s been fantastic.

Whew. These thoughts columns always go so long! But it’s the damn Brier. What else can we do? Thanks so much for reading. As a reminder, you can always subscribe for FREE and get every one of these delivered to your inbox. You can also follow me on Twitter for more up-to-date stuff. See you back here very soon.