There are two main reasons why the fourth year of any Olympic Quadrennial in Canadian curling is exciting:
the Trials is the best curling tournament on earth;
a lot of the teams break up after.
Curling isn’t always a “news-heavy” sport in the way some other sports are, and our true “offseason” only happens once every 4 years. In other sports, lineups shift within the season, at the end of the season, there’s free agency, there’s trades. It’s much more exciting. For curling, it basically happens every 1500 days or so, and so when we get some news, well it’s pretty darned exciting. I debated writing this article because, well, there’s a lot of curling still left to play this season. 3 Slams. The Scotties. The Brier. The Worlds. In some ways, it seems a bit strange to write obituaries for teams that still have things left to accomplish. But then Gregory Strong of the Canadian Press wrote an article less than 24 hours after the Trials ended, and Brent Laing said this:
Brent Laing, who plays lead on Team Epping, joked that the chatter may have started last Friday on trials cutdown day ahead of the playoffs.
I think “joked” is doing a lot of heavy lifting there. It’s definitely already started. But this has been a very weird Trials year. Last time around, we knew some things were already in the works. It was an open secret that Kevin Koe would have a new squad, even with qualifying for the Olympics. We knew Mike McEwen’s team was finished and it was a formality he’d be teaming up in a long-rumoured partnership with Reid Carruthers. We knew John Morris would be leaving Team Cotter. And in the same token, we knew Team Gushue and Team Bottcher were staying together, and it seemed very likely Team Jacobs would too.
This time around? The picture isn’t so clear. A lot of that has to do with two factors: retirement/hiatus and location. With the strict “one curler out of province per team” rule now (birthright stuff aside), some teams will require players to move. Other players will be moving just due to a life situation, which may affect where they play. And a LOT of curlers are teetering in that age 35-45 zone where a full retirement or a Marc Kennedy-style one-year hiatus could be very likely. I was speaking to a few curlers about this, and one curler told me it might be the “Wild West” come March and April, as quite a few curlers just simply haven’t decided whether they’re even going to play, pushing the decision-making much later than usual.
But what fun is it to not try and guess now? Brad Gushue and Darren Moulding said in that same Gregory Strong piece they expect the teams for next year to be fully sorted by the Brier. That only leaves a couple months, so we might as well get into it before it’s already decided.
Before we do that, though, this newsletter comes with two caveats:
If you’re a fan reading this article…I have no insider knowledge whatsoever. Yes, a lot of these curlers are my friends and I talk to them quite a bit, but nothing in here is anything other than a 100% blind guess. So please don’t read into any of this as some sort of “curling insider” thing. It’s just for fun.
If you’re a player in this article…don’t get mad at me. I’m probably wrong and this is just a fun thought exercise. If you think I’m super wrong, then great. Your covert operations are working perfectly. And if you think I’m super right…no one will believe I’m right anyway. So just have fun with it like I am and DM me if I’m REALLY right. I won’t tell. ;)
Here’s how I see the teams from the Men’s Trials shaking out next season, in order of finish. I’ll do a similar article for the ladies’ teams (MUCH harder imo) next week.
Team Horgan (Tanner Horgan, Jonathan Beuk, Wes Forget, Scott Chadwick, Jacob Horgan)
This felt like a one-and-done team to me, especially with the nature of the way the team came together last-minute and their rotating cast all season. But I think the success speaks for itself and they probably stay together. It’s clear Tanner Horgan wants to stay as a skip (why wouldn’t he), and this might be the best team he could assemble in front of him. He would have offers at third, but he’s still REALLY young and so I think this is the play. I just wonder if they find a way to get Jacob Horgan on the team on a more permanent basis and switch to a classic 4-man rotation. The Horgan brothers see themselves as a long-term pair, and it makes lots of sense. If they do go that route, Wes Forget is probably the odd man out but with Jonathan Beuk’s new baby and the demanding schedule the three non-Horgans played over the quad, maybe it works to stay as a 5.
Team Dunstone (Matt Dunstone, Braeden Moskowy, Kirk Muyres, Dustin Kidby)
This one is really interesting to me. Before the Trials, I would have said they were one of the more likely teams to stay together but after the Moskowy situation, I think it opens the door pretty wide for Matt to team up with Tyler Tardi in BC. He already lives there and while Saskatchewan hasn’t offered up the demanding field of years past, there’s still SOME resistance there. In BC, him and Tyler would build a stack of Purple Hearts to the moon, especially as Jim Cotter winds down his career.
I’m not sure if Braeden will still be playing as obviously we don’t know the situation there, but if he does, I think he stays in Sask. The other interesting player here is Kirk Muyres. His partner just moved to Ottawa, so does he follow and team up with John Epping or does he go back to skipping and picks up the remnants of the Glenn Howard team? (I’m assuming here Glenn retires, but that’s always an unsafe assumption) He could also be the import player for a Manitoba team, or go back to skipping a team in his birthright province of Saskatchewan, but I think Epping is the sneaky call here.
Team Bottcher (Brendan Bottcher, Darren Moulding, Brad Thiessen, Karrick Martin)
I think this entire equation comes down to Darren Moulding. He’s made multiple references in interviews to not having many years left in his career, and with the disappointing Trials showing, I could see him moving on. But who knows! I think if he does move on, he still plays, but it’s with a low-key, Alberta Tour-focussed team, maybe as a skip.
So then, who plays third? I’d imagine the other 3 stay together. They’ll have many suitors, but I’m not sure exactly who fits best with the Bottcher Team Program. If Marc Kennedy leaves Jacobs then maybe it’s an all-Alberta fit but for some reason I just don’t see that. Does BJ stay in Alberta and make a move over from Koe? This is one I truly don’t have an idea for, and I think it’s still quite possible it just ends up being another quad with Darren but I’ll say BJ Neufeld is the likely option if Darren moves on (more on him in the Koe section).
Team Gunnlaugson (Jason Gunnlaugson, Adam Casey, Matt Wozniak, Connor Njegovan)
I think a few things are true about this team: Jason will remain as a skip, and Adam and Woz are gone. I can see Connor sticking around to play lead, but how they fill in the rest of the lineup will be the question. How about Colton Lott? Lott and Kyle Doering have long been a package, maybe he picks up both of them for what would be a pretty strong Manitoba-based squad that could hit for days and days. Lott’s been knocking at the door as a major player for the last few seasons, this could potentially be his best opportunity. Could be a similar scenario with Braden Calvert, where Gunner maybe takes Braden on as a third, though he’s skipped his entire life and might be feeling like he’s turning the corner now at age 26, especially if McEwen takes a hiatus and Manitoba opens up a bit.
The only other option that makes sense is Gunner goes really young and takes over Jacques Gauthier’s team, moving everyone down a position. Jacques is a great thrower and probably ready for a step up in competition.
Team Epping (John Epping, Ryan Fry, Mat Camm, Brent Laing)
This is one team I could see being completely blown up. I think the Epping/Fry partnership has probably run its course, and Brent Laing might be done, or at least taking a year off. Epping has played with Mat Camm forever so it’s possible he sticks around. As I said up top, if Kirk Muyres is moving to Ontario, he becomes a very intriguing option at third. Outside of that, Ontario surprisingly doesn’t offer up a lot of interesting dance partners for John. The only option would be to take over part or all of Glenn Howard’s team, though I don’t know if that’s a reunion Scott Howard/Mathers/March are looking for. It might be the only option, though, outside of some stealth situation where Epping picks up say, a Tanner Horgan/Colton Flasch/Adam Casey to play third, Camm stays at second, and he finds an Ontario-based lead that fits the bill.
Team McEwen (Mike McEwen, Reid Carruthers, Derek Samagalski, Colin Hodgson)
One of the few teams in the field I could see pulling the double quad, as there doesn’t seem to be any immediate need to blow it up outside of individual players potentially stepping back. Colin Hodgson lives a 6-hour drive away from the nearest airport, so is he gonna commit to making that drive 10-15 times a year for the next 4 years? Is Derek Samagalski finished? Mike has two kids now, maybe he’s done too? They’re all at that age where it becomes a tough choice to commit to another 4. If the team is done but Mike still plays, Mike will basically have the same options Gunner does if he stays in Manitoba: Colton Lott, Braden Calvert or Jacques Gauthier. He has the option of pulling in an elite third from another province and then rounding out the front end with some good Manitoba boys (maybe a reunion with Woz?). It’s either that or he pulls a Dunstone and airlifts into another province to take over an established lineup of 3 from there but those are types of options are probably limited to John Epping (he’d skip and John would play third), Brendan Bottcher (Bottcher skips and Mike plays third), Howard’s lineup minus Glenn, or some sort of Saskatchewan lineup with the pieces of Dunstone/Flasch but none of those seem all that likely. I think it’s Manitoba or bust and I think the most likely scenario is he stays at minimum with Reid and fills out the lineup from there.
Team Koe (Kevin Koe, BJ Neufeld, John Morris, Ben Hebert)
Another interesting one here, as some signs pointed to Kevin Koe himself being done after this quad but I’ve heard recent rumours that isn’t the case. I would imagine John Morris is now fully done, as he’s had injury issues and tried to step away this quad too, only to be pulled back in. Does BJ stick around? Him and Kevin have good chemistry and won a Brier together, but haven’t gotten over the hump since, and Kevin likes to change up the mix every quadrennial regardless of success, so I imagine he does the same thing here.
I’d imagine Ben sticks with Kevin no matter what, if Kevin keeps playing. I don’t see Marc Kennedy going back, I don’t see Colton Flasch going back, so who plays second? And who plays third if BJ is gone? This would be a lot easier to predict if McEwen breaks up, as they’d have options from there. The problem is that with some of the teams that are sticking together, an elite third will be really difficult to find. It reminds me of the cycle in the NHL, where right now, right-hand shot defencemen are going for a premium because most of the good ones are locked up to long-term deals and they’re hard to find otherwise. This quad, thirds are gonna be a problem, and it’s why someone like Ryan Fry could make sense as he’d be one of the few elite options without a squad and who hasn’t played with Kevin before.
My prediction is Koe and BJ are done, Ryan Fry moves over to play third, and they’ll find an option at second to move to Alberta, whether that’s one of the Ontario/Manitoba/Sask pieces or from somewhere else. Catlin Schneider could be a nice fit there, for example.
Team Jacobs (Brad Jacobs, Marc Kennedy, EJ Harnden, Ryan Harnden)
I think they stay together. It’s been a nice fit for all 4 guys, they got a couple shots away from going to the Olympics, and I don’t see any of the 4 of them wanting to walk away from the game just yet. Plus, you’d have to assume they’re odds-on favourites to win the Brier right now and that berth back as Team Canada is always juicy.
Team Gushue (Brad Gushue, Mark Nichols, Brett Gallant, Geoff Walker)
This one is funny because I think with Brad’s injury history and just insane schedule over the last two decades, you could’ve seen a very possible hiatus for him and Mark if they don’t win. But when you make the Olympics, well, you simply stay together and you play. Too many opportunities off the ice not to, and with an Olympic gold medal (if they win) and another Brier title or two in the years to come, the foursome would inch their way into the “greatest team of all-time” discussions, something Brad would no doubt be after.
BONUS: I think Colton Flasch is the one piece in a lot of these discussions that will be interesting to monitor. Does he stay in Sask with his current squad or something close to it and chase Briers out of there, or does he recognize the hole at third spot a lot of skips have and go for that? I tend to think he plays best as a skip so I could see that being more likely than anything else, but he’s the most interesting of the names that didn’t play at the Trials, for me.
What do you think? I’m disabling comments on these newsletters because some curling fans are really weird about stuff, but @ me on Twitter at @cullenthecurler.